MH370 Search Boss 'Expecting' To Find Plane

Written By Unknown on Minggu, 08 Maret 2015 | 20.18

By Mark Stone, Asia Correspondent

The man in charge of the search for missing flight MH370 has told Sky News that he is "expecting but not guaranteeing" that the aircraft will be found.

Martin Dolan, chief commissioner of the Australian Transport Safety Board (ATSB), the organisation coordinating the search in the Southern Ocean, told Sky News that while he was once "cautiously optimistic" he is now "less cautious and more optimistic".

His comments came on the first anniversary of the loss of the Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 en route from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing. The plane disappeared shortly after take-off with 239 passengers and crew on board.

An interim report into the plane's disappearance says it travelled in a southerly direction until it ran out of fuel in the Indian Ocean, west of Australia.

"I am confident that if the aircraft is in the area we are searching, we will find it, and I have a high degree of confidence but not certainty about the satellite data and the calculations that an international group of experts has come to," Mr Dolan told Sky News.

"I have said previously that I am 'cautiously optimistic'. Because we now know the capacity of our search teams... and we haven't been able to see any flaws in our analysis, I am less cautious than I was; more optimistic but again, I can't guarantee we will get an outcome although we are confident that is the case.

"We have got a priority search area, a large one. Within that there are no relative priorities; each space within that search area is of equal probability.

"So at this stage, with a bit over 40% [of the 60,000 km sq area] covered, we are not feeling that there is any problem.

"We have planned to cover that entire area thoroughly and we are expecting but not guaranteeing that we will find the aircraft during the course of that."

Main points from the report:

:: The underwater locator beacon battery had expired in December 2012, a year before the plane disappeared. The significance of this was not apparent but it would mean that searchers may have a lesser chance of finding the plane, even if they were in its vicinity. However, the report adds: "There is some extra margin in the design to account for battery life variability and ensure that the unit will meet the minimum requirement."

"However, once beyond the expiry date, the (battery's) effectiveness decreases so it may operate, for a reduced time period until it finally discharges," the report said. While it is possible the battery will operate past the expiry date, "it is not guaranteed that it will work or that it would meet the 30-day minimum requirement," said the report.

:: There was nothing unusual or concerning in the health, financial affairs or behaviour of the pilots and crew

:: The plane's right wing had been damaged in Shanghai in 2012 and repaired by Boeing. It had gained its most recent certificate of airworthiness in May 2013, when a flaperon inboard seal needed to be replaced. There were no other issues.

:: There were no significant clouds at the last civil radar point, no lightning, no significant weather phenomena

:: The report has details of the consignment of batteries being carried onboard the plane - Motorola batteries made in Malaysia. The report says that, while they were inspected, they didn't go through additional security screening. The batteries are allowed on flights.

Painstaking analysis of satellite data from British company Inmarsat has concluded that the plane had flown south for up to eight hours before coming down in the Southern Ocean off Perth in Western Australia.

The focus is an extremely challenging search of the sea bed within a 'priority search area' determined by further satellite analysis.

Currently, four ships from the Dutch firm Fugro are scanning a mountainous 60,000 sq km seabed.

Mr Dolan said: "We are certainly confident. We are not certain, of course, because there is a limit to the satellite data and analysis but we have been reviewing that data and analysis continually ever since we took over the search back in April, and we have got as much out of that as we can, and it doesn't give us a guarantee of location just a very high probability."

The search is being jointly funded by the Malaysian and Australian governments who have pledged continued support until it is completed in May.

Mr Dolan gave a remarkably upbeat assessment of one of the most challenging search operations ever mounted.

"If that [satellite] data is reliable, and we think it most likely is then we know that we will cover the search area thoroughly; if the aircraft is there, we will find it," he said.

Each of the four ships in the search area has a crew of about 30.

Three of the vessels are dragging sophisticated sonar devices just above the seabed, scanning for wreckage. This represents a significant challenge because of the rugged mountainous nature of the seabed.

The fourth vessel is using a remote-controlled unmanned submarine which can manoeuvre more easily along the seabed.

Unlike the towed devices, the submarine cannot send back real-time data so it must be hauled to the surface every few days.

"We have got quite elaborate quality assurance system in place to make sure that we are not missing anything with that sonar data and we are very comfortable that we will see things down there," Mr Dolan said.

"We have already found shipping containers and various other things that clearly fell off vessels over the course of storms and so on so we are getting the resolution necessary [to spot the plane]."

Mr Dolan praised the work of the teams on board the vessels.

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  1. Gallery: Vigils Take Place To Remember Missing Flight MH370 One Year After Disappearance

    A Chinese relative of passengers on board the airliner attends a gathering to mark the one-year anniversary of the disappearance in Kuala Lumpur

A child is comforted by her mother during a vigil to remember the victims

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