Ukraine: Can Merkel Broker A Breakthrough?

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has two key objectives for her visit to Ukraine.

First the meeting with Ukrainian leader Petro Poroshenko must send a united message to the Russians.

Her visit comes just days before Mr Poroshenko will hold crucial talks with Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

Mr Putin will seize on any signs of disunity between the EU and Ukraine.

Ukraine has been pushed and pulled between East and West but closer trading ties with the EU have been one of the big ambitions of Mr Poroshenko's presidency.

Second - the German Chancellor has a much more difficult objective: to work towards a ceasefire between the government in Kiev and separatist rebels who've declared a people's republic in eastern Ukraine.

Mr Poroshenko has said he will "talk peace" with Mr Putin but he wants Russia to stop supporting the rebels.

Vladimir Putin and Petro Poroshenko in informal talks

In June, the German Chancellor met the Russian and Ukraninan presidents

There's been talk of a deal Ms Merkel has been trying to hatch which had to be put on the back burner following the downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17.

Rebels are accused of firing at the plane believing it was a Ukrainian military aircraft.

If anyone can broker a breakthrough it is Mrs Merkel.

She is one of the few Western - and indeed world - leaders who Mr Putin appears to have time for and both know a further decline in Russian-EU relations will hit each others' economies even more.

Some of Germany's biggest companies have big operations in Russia, which is still the EU's third biggest trading partner.

Under Ms Merkel, the Russo-German axis has strengthened and until the plane attack the Germans had been against punitive sanctions and their impact commercially and diplomatically.

There has been heavy fighting in eastern Ukraine

Ms Merkel has already spoken by phone to Mr Putin in the wake of his decision to send a convoy of humanitarian aid into eastern Ukraine without agreement from Kiev.

So in Kiev the conversation, whilst tricky, focuses on a way to stop the fighting.

She is priming Mr Poroshenko ahead of his talks with Mr Putin in Minsk - and potentially paving the way for a deal.

It is complex but there's speculation any kind of ceasefire would likely focus on giving autonomy to the east of Ukraine and possibly allow for recognition of Russian control of Crimea.

Other key factors include Ukraine's desire to join Nato and its economic ties with the West.

With Europe and particularly Germany wanting Russia's gas, no one needs reminding winter is on its way.

The people of Luhansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine are suffering real humanitarian hardship - with no power and water for days.

As temperatures start to fall Ms Merkel's diplomatic efforts could be a real opportunity to thaw frozen relations with the Russians.