How To Tackle Nigeria's Growing Insurgency?
Updated: 1:09pm UK, Friday 09 May 2014
By Sam Kiley, Foreign Affairs Editor
American "experts" have arrived. British "advisers" are on their way - phew. It may only be a matter of time before Nigeria's missing girls are found and rescued.
Baloney.
Boko Haram is not a new problem. It's been violently opposing Nigeria's governments since 2009, leaving 4,000 dead, laying waste to villages, and not long ago killing 58 schoolboys in their classrooms.
It's had links to al Qaeda in the Islamic Mahgreb (AQIM).
It kidnapped a French family in the Cameroons, and is reported to have netted $3m (£1.78m) for their safe release.
The militant Islamist group has achieved international notoriety over the abduction of the girls, all aged between 12 and 15 - but only after releasing a video threat to sell them into slavery.
But it has been closely monitored by Western security agencies for some time.
In 2012, British special forces troops were at the sharp end of a failed rescue operation in Sokoto aimed at releasing Chris McManus, a British engineer and his Italian colleague.
They had been held by Boko Haram for over a year. It was thought they were about to be moved or sold to an al Qaeda group operating in the lawless Sahel.
The connections to al Qaeda, which intelligence sources say extends all the way to Somalia but is more tightly entwined with AQIM, have meant that Boko Haram has been of considerable interest to the West.
This has been mostly manifest in sharing intelligence with and getting information from Nigerian agencies about the threat that the movement might pose beyond Nigeria's borders.
Dealing with the growing domestic insurgency has been seen as a strictly Nigerian matter.
Very often Western commentators will see the involvement of Western troops or spooks as a panacea to turmoil in a Third World nation.
They are not.
It took the British army half a decade to get to grips with the complex tribal structures that dominate Helmand in Afghanistan, where the UK sent some 10,000 troops.
American forces never got to grips with the complex world of Somalia's clan structures after its UN/US intervention there in 1991.
And Western allies have left chaos in their wake after their invasion of Iraq.
Foreign experts can, however, help with technical intelligence surveillance, planning, and perhaps even offering troops for a final assault on a complex target.
But all other matters must remain domestic issues because only locals can fully understand the complexities of the social landscape they live in.
There may, ultimately, be a useful military option involving a strike at the leadership of Boko Haram that the West can help with.
But Nigerians know that finding a solution to a growing insurgency involves far more complex issues.
Nigeria's economically-neglected north will need a greater share of the nation's annual oil revenues of $50bn (£29.8bn) if it's going to reverse the growing north-south schism that has always threatened the coherence of the former British colony.
Locally, Boko Haram's foot soldiers will need to be lured out of the bush with offers of amnesty and employment. Surviving leaders may need to be given a role.
But, of course, this "proves" the argument that politics in Nigeria can only be advanced through the barrel of a gun - the nation has suffered at least eight military coups since independence from Britain in 1960 and is now taking nervous steps along a democratic pathway.
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