Putin's Shrewd Manouevre Muddy's The Waters
Updated: 2:38pm UK, Monday 17 March 2014
By Robert Nisbet, Europe Correspondent, in Brussels
You would imagine the combined economic and diplomatic heft of the world's biggest superpower and its most powerful trading bloc could force an isolated Russia to the negotiating table.
It's a testament to some shrewd manoeuvring by the government of Vladimir Putin that the EU and the US seem unable to do it.
Washington and European capitals have adopted the same language (how many diplomats from either side of the Atlantic have you heard referring to annexation as "unacceptable in the 21st century"?) and the same methods: suspending co-operation with Russia, then approving targeted sanctions, while threatening broader economic penalties.
But Moscow knows the fourth option, military confrontation, is unpalatable; so the foreign ministers of the EU's 28 member states have had the most vivid colour removed from their diplomatic palette.
That injected more rhetorical theatre at Monday's Foreign Affairs Council, because the actors can't play with all the props. William Hague refers to the Crimean referendum as a "mockery".
He even darkly intoned: "I wouldn't describe it as a new Cold War, but that'll depend on the course of events over the next few days."
In truth, the ministers already know the list of names of the 20 or so Russians and Crimeans facing asset freezes and travel bans, because their ambassadors spent the weekend compiling it, in unusually tight security.
The real test will be "Option Three", broader economic sanctions targeting Moscow: how far are those European countries prepared to go which rely on Russian money to swell their banking sectors (UK, Cyprus) or those who make billions from trade with Russia (Germany, Netherlands)?
One spokesman for a senior diplomat involved in the negotiations said that this was a "test of resolve" for the EU, to show that the short-term pain for the instigators of a trade war would be better than the long-term agony of a prolonged crisis.
There is also little doubt that Russia's response to the accusations of illegality under international law has stung European diplomats.
Moscow has accused the West of hypocrisy, referring to Kosovo, where Russia sided with Serbia as Nato jets helped ethnic Albanians seek independence from Belgrade.
The allies counter by saying the comparison is false because the ethnic Albanians were facing expulsion, or worse, from Serbian troops, whereas the ethnic Russians in Crimea have lived in relative peace under the Ukrainian flag.
But Moscow has deliberately muddied the waters. What is "international law" when recognition of Kosovo's independence by the lion's share of individual countries hasn't translated into UN membership? Why are Scots allowed to vote for independence but Crimeans aren't?
Russia's central argument: one region's vote to determine its future can be viewed very differently depending on your politics or geographical proximity.
Also, the EU's repeated assertion that Crimeans were voting at the "end of the barrel of a Russian gun" is slightly cauterised by the strength of support in favour of joining the Russian Federation, suggesting the presence of troops would have had little sway on the outcome.
So the EU and US are united in outrage but with a limited range of options, and no supranational body which can be called into help (Russia is a permanent member of the UN Security Council), the Kremlin can afford to let this play out a little while longer.
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